39. The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper.
“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito， the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro， who served as mayor for four years before Montoya， the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly， the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”
12. 地方性報(bào)紙的編者按：
在Montoya當(dāng) San Perdito市長(zhǎng)的頭4年里，人口下降而失業(yè)率上升。每當(dāng)一個(gè)新企業(yè)開業(yè)，就有兩個(gè)舊的關(guān)門。而在Montoya之前Uarro當(dāng)市長(zhǎng)的4年里，失業(yè)率下降人口增長(zhǎng)。很明顯，San Perdito的居民重新選舉Varro而非Montoya會(huì)得到更好的服務(wù)。
提供觀點(diǎn)：
1. It is fallacious reasoning unless other possible casual explanations have been considered and ruled out. recession depression downturn低迷時(shí)期 is part of a picture of 。.. mayor
2. set the stage for Yet another possibility is that Varro enjoyed a period of economic stability and Varro”s own administration set the stage for the unemployment and the decline in population 。
3. availability emotionally intentionally specific specifically anger angry citizen thereby bypass
4. cast one”s vote for sb. eliminate abolish casual emotional appeal
1， 缺乏standard ratio of the closed business to new business in the whole country， 不能說兩個(gè)倒閉一個(gè)開就是壞事，很可能淘汰eliminate through selection or contest了out of date的企業(yè)，建立了更多具有competitive advantages 的企業(yè)。也是好事。
2， 未排除他因造成了不同。很可能是因?yàn)樵赑在任期間，全國的經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣，造成了事業(yè)更增加。而不是兩個(gè)市長(zhǎng)的不同。假定過去和現(xiàn)在一樣，也是個(gè)錯(cuò)誤！recession depression downturn低迷時(shí)期
40. The following appeared in a memorandum from the business department of the Apogee Company：
“When the Apogee Company had all its operations in one location， it was more profitable than it is today. Therefore， the Apogee Company should close down its field offices and conduct all its operations from a single location. Such centralization would improve profitability by cutting costs and helping the company maintains better supervision of all employees.”（2）
下面摘自APogee公司的商務(wù)部門的備忘錄：
當(dāng)Apogee將它所有的業(yè)務(wù)部門集中在一處時(shí)，它將有比現(xiàn)在更多的利潤(rùn)。因此，Apogee應(yīng)該關(guān)閉它的駐外辦公室并從單一場(chǎng)所管理它的所有部門。這樣的話，集中會(huì)通過削減成本提高利潤(rùn)，并幫助公司更好地對(duì)所有員工進(jìn)行監(jiān)督。
提供觀點(diǎn)：
1. causal oversimplification： It is imprudent to conclude that the establishment of the field offices is the only reason explaining the decline of the profit.
2. all things are equal： The success of the centralization of the past does not guarantee the applicability in the future.
3. either-or-or choice： The author assumes that the centralization and the establishment of field offices are mutually exclusive alternatives， there is no middle ground between they two. In fact， we can have the field offices under centralized control.
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